Wednesday, August 17, 2011

Analysis: Defecting Soldiers, Why and Who are They?

As early as May, I was told that some soldiers were refusing orders to fire on peaceful protesters and had been subsequently gunned down by snipers from the internal security services. During the first days of the massive protests that rocked the coastal city of Latakia, SANA news reported on the protests and showed graphic photos of soldiers who had supposedly been gunned down by "armed thugs and outside forces intent on sabotaging Syria by fomenting unrest." When watching the report, it could be seen that of the 9 dead soldiers shown, almost all had single bullet wounds to either the head or chest. This has become a hallmark of the regime, using the internal security services to punish soldiers who refuse to obey orders. I was also told that punishment of this kind was especially prevelant for commanding officers and soldiers who were Alawite and refused orders to fire, although the exact specifics of this story were never confirmed.

Soldiers who have defected have given similar accounts of being given the choice by their commanding officers to either fire on protesters or be shot themselves. I recently interviewed several soldiers via an intermediary and they recounted their stories regarding why they defected and under what circumstances. As the months have gone on, the number of Syrian soldiers defecting has only increased, most making their way out of the country for safety reasons.

Soldier #1: Was a volunteer sergeant in the Republican Guard in the 100th Regiment, paratroopers. His division was sent to the region of Modamieh in Damascus province to quell protests there. He explained that orders were being given by the military intelligence services. Hit unit was ordered to open fire on peaceful protesters. This soldier and a number of his comrades refused orders to fire. When it became clear that members of the military intelligence services present were going to fire themselves on the protesters, this soldier and his fellow soldiers who had refused the orders turned their guns on the military intelligence service commanders. In the resulting firefight, eight soldiers were killed and he and ten other soldiers escaped. They were subsequently sheltered by protesters within Damascus province until they could make their way out of the country.

Soldier #2: Was in the Syrian special forces in the 4th Mechanized Division. His unit traveled with the rest of the army sent to retake the city of Hama. When they arrived at the city, he said he saw members of the Mukhabarat and Shabiha wearing official army uniforms (which they have not done in the past apparently) and driving the armored personnel carriers and tanks who were shelling residential sections of the city and killing civilians at random. He and five of his fellow soldiers decided at this point to leave the army. They left Hama along with a number of young people from Hama and made their way into Idlib province and crossed out of the country.

Soldier #3: Also a soldier in the 4th Mechanized Division and a friend of soldier #2. Upon seeing that the army was shelling and attacking residential parts of Hama and shooting unarmed civilians decided to defect and left with soldier #2 from Hama to Idlib province and out of the country.

These three examples are important because they are career soldiers who are in the Republican Guard and the 4th Mechanized Division. These two branches of the military are seen as loyal to the regime and the Assad family. The 4th Mechanized Division is under the command of Maher Assad (younger brother) and the Republican Guard is charged with guarding the city of Damascus and the province. As time goes on, an increase in defections from these two branches of the military will be telling in terms of the military's calculations regarding whether or not they think this regime can survive the current upheaval. Serious collapse of either of these branches of the military leave the regime with only the Mukhabarat and the Shabiha as tools of terror, and just two weeks ago the Shabiha had a protest in Damascus because the regime was behind on their payments to them. Clearly, the internal mechanics of the Syrian military need to be closely watched for indications of a serious change in momentum either for or against the regime.


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